Friday, April 11. 2008The View from the Couch: Veep WorldVice presidential candidates only matter when a presidential contender loses. The conventional wisdom is that they don't matter at all. But that pronouncement is only the ego of the winner swelling up so large it obscures whatever aid the veep brought to the ticket. This time around, like any number of occurrences in this contest, the conventional wisdom will be thwarted. The choice of vice president looms large on both sides. First, a bit of review of why the veep choice matters. One proof of the veep's importance is when an incumbent loses a second term. Take, for instance, the case of George H.W. Bush. He lost his second term for a number of reasons, principally Ross Perot, but Dan Quayle didn't bring daddy Bush one extra vote. I'm sure Quayle lost him a few. Toward the end of Bush's first term he showed a few examples of physical weakness; throwing up on the Japanese prime minister in January of 1992 wasn't helpful. The thought of a possible President Quayle cost Bush votes. And who was Jimmy Carter's vice president? See? Walter Mondale. No help there. And how about Gerald Ford's? None for a few months and then Nelson Rockefeller. And all those folks were actually president, at least for one term. For those who never won, the veep choice becomes even more stark. Al Gore, who did win the presidency in 2000, his choice of Joe Lieberman turned out to be of no help. Lieberman was supposed to win Florida for Gore. He did, you will say, but it would have been better if Lieberman had vetoed the butterfly ballot. I always thought Gore should have picked John Kerry for veep in 2000. Such a ticket could have battered the draft-dodging George W. Bush. Kerry wouldn't have been Swift Boated in 2000. And Kerry's choice of what's his name, John Edwards, is a classic no win situation. Edwards won Kerry nothing. Now Edwards might have more influence with the handful of pledged delegates he now holds. So that brings us to John McCain. If I had to predict today, I would pick the Mormon Mitt Romney as the favorite. He was a governor, is young enough, has some sort of following, however weird. He's been a "successful" business man. Everyone else would be a wild card; at least he has been vetted somewhat. And hasn't Huckabee? Yes, but one doesn't need a comedian as a veep choice. Condi Rice would go down in flames; she has gotten a complete pass on her adult personal life. She herself knows she isn't viable in a position that requires an actual election. And Obama and Clinton are stuck with each other. If not both of them on one ticket, his or her (most likely his) choice for the bottom of the ticket will get endless scrutiny and be the victim of far too much comparison to the photo-finisher primary loser. Barack Obama has the opposite of the McCain problem, but yet Obama needs someone to fill him out, the way McCain requires an omega to his alpha. Be assured, you will hear a lot down the road that the veep choice doesn't matter, but it does, it does. Trackbacks
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