Oscar Predictions: Wherein I Tell You What Is Good, Then Look Dumb Later.

From CNN.com:

"Little Miss Sunshine" earned nominations for best picture, best supporting actor (Alan Arkin), best supporting actress (Abigail Breslin) and best original screenplay.

Here's the best original screenplay and best supporting actor. Arkin earned this a long time ago.

The nominees for best picture are "The Departed," "Babel," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine" and "The Queen."

If "The Departed" doesn't win, it will be for two reasons. 1) It's a remake of a Chinese film trilogy called Infernal Affairs, which means this isn't a start-from-scratch film. It's more like buying cake mix in a box. 2) Count the continuity errors in "The Departed" and then get back to me about what should win best picture. If a film with dozens of continuity problems warrants best picture, I'll eat crow. I loved the film, but the continuity problems were just amateurish. Scorcese has done better films. He's also worked with better script supervisors.

Right now I think "Little Miss Sunshine" is too small a film to upset all the others. I'd still love to see an upset. Little films rock. This would be the little film that could. In a year in which Rocky Balboa made a comeback, I like to think anything's possible.

The nominees for best actor are Forest Whitaker ("The Last King of Scotland"), Leonardo DiCaprio ("Blood Diamond"), Ryan Gosling ("Half Nelson"), Peter O'Toole ("Venus") and Will Smith ("The Pursuit of Happyness").

Forest Whitaker. Not much of a prediction here. Sorry. Will Smith or Ryan Gosling could stage an upset, but that's about it. O'Toole is a courtesy nomination to old school actors, and DiCaprio should be nominated for "The Departed." I didn't say he should win, though.

The nominees for best actress are Helen Mirren ("The Queen"), Judi Dench ("Notes on a Scandal"), Penelope Cruz ("Volver"), Meryl Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada") and Kate Winslet ("Little Children"). Streep's nomination is her 14th; she's won two Oscars.

I'm a fan of films people have actually seen, which puts Streep ahead of the rest. I won't argue the talents of the other nominees or the merits of those films -- this is the strongest category, by far -- and all of them deserve some recognition. However, Meryl Streep getting nominated is like the sun rising and setting. Winning is an entirely different story (Hilary Swank, anyone?), but this year she seems safe. Helen Mirren might stage an upset, though.

Other than Alan Arkin, I don't have strong feelings about anyone in the best supporting actor/actress categories, and I haven't seen enough to call it.

The nominees for best director are Scorsese ("The Departed"), Eastwood ("Letters From Iwo Jima"), Stephen Frears ("The Queen"), Greengrass ("United 93") and Gonzalez Inarritu ("Babel").

Can you be the best director if your film was a sloppy remake that was still better than most films this year? Maybe. Eastwood will probably make Scorcese his bitch again, and for that I won't mind. In the long run, "Letters From Iwo Jima" will be a more important film.

Whatchu think?